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======How I'd vote #1======
Well, my foolishness continues apace, folks. Some days I just can't seem to see the wood for the trees. Last Wednesday, I was unwise enough to post this on the 'hyper-local' social network <https://NextDoor.co.uk>.
> Just for fun, on each remaining Wednesday in April I'm
> going to post "How I would vote tomorrow" followed, on
> the first Wednesday in May, by “How I WILL vote
> tomorrow." So this is a dry run. First, I will list
> the candidates in order of quality. (Only Ms Fanet is
> in a position to boast a decent recent track record,
> so she'll be quite hard to dislodge from the top spot.)
> Then, second, based on my understanding of how much
> general support there is for their political parties
> nationally or, in the case of Mr MacLennan, how the
> three Independent candidates fared last year (not too
> well, ahem), I will think tactically how best to use my
> preference votes to steer the result in what I think
> is the right direction. Finally, [third,] I'll explain
> what I think you should do if you agree with me.
The first thing that had to change was the schedule, which made very little sense before. What was likely to change in the space of only three days? Not very much, surely? And indeed, not much did. Regular posts at five or six day intervals made much more sense, eg Sun 17th April, Sat 23rd, Thur 28th, and Tue 3rd May. So that's now the provisional schedule.
The second change was to the second of the three steps, which needed to be loosened up to take account of Mr Angus MacDonald's wealth and, hence, his campaigning heft - as well as his close ties to the local Chamber of Commerce and, to give the Devil his due, a fine record of philanthropy and entrepreneurship locally (see <https://www.youtube.com/embed/rqSh0VrvesU>). I can probably be forgiven for overlooking the need to make a few adjustments for that. (But the following change? Not so much.)
Some days after my dry run last Sunday it dawned on me that I'd made the whole thing unnecessarily complicated. Here's why: the Ward 21 contest on 5th May is a Single Transferable Vote (STV) election where there happens to be only one more candidate (specifically, five) than there are seats up for grabs (four). Readers of my 15th December Wed-Head (at <https://draytonmark.substack.com/p/wed-head-xxx-pt2>) might recall that STV reduces to AV ('Alternative Vote') when the candidates contest a single seat (as is normal in by-elections like last year's won, all but inevitably, by the SNP's Sarah Fanet who has since proved to be an effective councillor and is, naturally, standing again and, no doubt, expecting to win handsomely - which she will).
I mention the reduction from STV to AV because a similar reduction occurs when there is only one candidate to be eliminated. In this case, STV reduces to Last Past The Post (Loses). In other words, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated and everyone else is elected immediately. This means that, except in the highly unlikely event of a tie for last place, down-ballot preferences (second, third, etc) don't make a darned bit of difference.
Enough theory. In practice? Well, to summarise: this week, the good got better (well, two out of three ain't bad); the bad got worse. So here, at last, is the first proper application of my revised method:-
The GOOD
Fiona Fawcett (Con) - by far the most impressive; focus on (i) mental health and (ii) environment
Thomas MacLennan (Ind) - experienced; very clear focus on (i) spending and (ii) localism
Sarat Fanet (SNP) - solid track record since December; emphasis on community inclusivity
The BAD
Angus MacDonald (LD) - flip-flopped on Planny visit (laughable reason); hopelessly naive
Kate Willis (Green) - flip-flopped on Planny visit (no reason given); crazy views; dense
(I'm the UGLY, of course - just get a load of my teeth haha.)
Dr Fawcett has landed the top spot after a terrific visit to Plantation yesterday (see <https://draytonmark.substack.com/p/making-friday-finer>). Mr MacLennan has edged past Ms Fanet based largely on this candid reply to my NoseyPARCA colleague Jennifer Seitz's question "What will you have achieved by the end of 2022?"
> "[I] honestly don't know, as I have no idea what's in HC's capital plan
> for Lochaber. [..] Because all the experienced councillors have left, I
> [..] decided to stand for election. Simply because experienced
> councillors from elsewhere in the Highlands will grab available
> resources before new councillors have found how it works.
> Alternatively I could make a list of promises at this point, knowing
> that if I get in it'll be 5 [(sic)] years before you can do anything about it,
> I'd rather be honest."
This commendable reply entirely vindicated my instinctive judgement of what amounts to Mr MacLennan's 'unique selling point', his expertise based on his having spent eight years of his life going up against the Inverness mafia. As Jennifer reported a few days ago:-
> Mr Drayton has previously described Dr Willis as 'dense' and Mr
> MacDonald as 'hopelessly naive - totally out of his depth, frankly.
> He shows not the least understanding of what he's going up against.
> The Nessiemafiosi are just going to run rings round him. I don't know
> Mr [Thomas] MacLennan from Adam, actually - he was before my time -
> but he's got to be a far, far better bet: look at the stress his flyer
> puts on local spending, local decision making, accountability, on his
> being "experienced and determined." Those are the words of a man
> with scars on his back.' (source:
> <https://draytonmark.substack.com/p/news-release-4>.)
So, then: "Come on, Drayton, out with it! Who would your first preference be if the election was tomorrow?"
Ms Fanet doesn't need my vote and Mr MacLennan's telling point about his having SIXTEEN times as much experience as ALL the other four candidates put together (!), combined with Dr Fawcett's outstanding mix of fine personal qualities and noble pre-occupations (many of the latter shared with Ms Fanet, by the way), makes it a toss-up between the Tory and the Indy. And, on the face of it and as things stand, that's exactly what I'd wish a healthy chunk of a fair-minded electorate would do: toss a coin and vote for one or t'other. Unfortunately, a fair-minded electorate is not precisely what we have. It will stick far too much in the craw of a great many nationalists to vote for a candidate from the UK's quintessentially unionist party, the Conservatives. And plenty of unionists, too, will absolutely refuse ever to hold their nose and vote for a Tory, however good a candidate she might be. Others might, but won't next month because that contemptible two-faced party reptile Boris Johnson** is so deservedly unpopular. Still others, sadly, will misguidedly support the LibDem's Angus MacDonald, a dreadful mistake that I'll have a good deal more to say about before 5th May, believe me. (And anyone seriously considering voting for the Green Party is probably a lost cause to any form of political-economy that passes basic tests for sanity.)
[[ **I've never thought BoJo remotely fit to be our prime minister because of that nasty business over Nadine Zahari Ratcliffe. Very happily, she's back in the UK now - but my judgement stands. ]]
If you are one such, I very much hope you'll vote for Mr MacLennan. But if you've got a clothes peg handy - or even a pot of Vick, if you remember the autopsy scene in Silence of the Lambs - please support the best of the bunch (so far): Dr Fiona Fawcett.
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